A brief, incomplete, and mostly wrong climate forecast for 2026

Predictions are hard, especially about the future. These ones are definitely (hopefully) wrong.

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Hey there 👋
Skander here.

Look, 2026 is going to be a rough year for climate. We all know it. The politics are a mess, the temperatures keep breaking records, and somewhere right now a VC is being pitched “carbon capture but AI.”

So I figured we’d start the year with something different: a completely unserious, borderline irresponsible forecast of the next twelve months.

Think of it as a coping mechanism with snark.

🌊 Let’s dive in.

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🥶 January

The year opens with a record-breaking polar vortex that somehow only affects areas where climate denial is highest. Scientists call it “statistical noise.” Twitter users call it “God’s sense of humor.”

Elon Musk announces Tesla will capture carbon using Cybertrucks parked in Walmart lots. The carbon capture mechanism is “vibes.” Stock rises 12%.

Texas’s grid fails again. Governor Abbott blames wind turbines, renewable energy, AOC, the concept of insulation, and “woke electrons.” ERCOT sends out a press release that just says “lol sorry” and a link to a space heater on Amazon.
The heater is sold out.

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🔋 February

BYD unveils a $15,000 EV that also functions as a heat pump, a rice cooker, and a small apartment. The US responds with 200% tariffs and a sternly worded tweet.
BYD responds by making it $11,000.

CATL announces a battery that charges in 3 minutes and lasts forever. There’s one catch: it’s made of a material that only exists in a single mine controlled by a guy named Dmitri who won’t return calls.

The first “climate-positive” private jet launches. It offsets emissions by making passengers feel really, really guilty during the flight. Ticket price: $45,000. Carbon offset: $12. The math doesn’t math but the marketing absolutely maths.

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Want to actually work on the real solutions instead of doom-scrolling?

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📊 March

McKinsey releases a 400-page report titled “Climate Transition: Unlocking Shareholder Value Through Strategic Ambiguity.” Every Fortune 500 company buys it. None of them read it. All of them cite it.

Someone finally calculates the carbon footprint of all the carbon footprint calculators. The results are classified.

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☀️ April

Fusion power is achieved for real this time. It lasts 4 seconds. Investors declare victory. The reactor costs $22 billion. The energy produced could power a toaster for eleven minutes. “We are close” says everyone.

India deploys 80 GW of solar in Q1. Western media runs the headline: “India’s Solar Boom: But At What Cost?” The cost is that solar is cheap and works. The article is 3,000 words.

Earth Day celebrations are sponsored by Shell.

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🔄 May

Legacy automakers announce they’re “recommitting to EVs” after briefly recommitting to hybrids after briefly recommitting to EVs after briefly recommitting to denial.

A new report finds that “buying local” has a larger carbon footprint than shipping tomatoes from Spain because you drove a 2004 Suburban to the farmers market. The discourse lasts three weeks.

A VC tweets “climate tech is dead” after their portfolio company fails. Climate tech continues to exist. The VC has already pivoted to AI.

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🔥 June

Wildfire season begins in March this year. By May, it’s just called “fire season.” By July, it’s called “the situation.”

Someone finally reads all 1,400 pages of the IRA. They’re still confused about the tax credits. So is the IRS. The reader starts with the BBB.

A hurricane forms in the Gulf of Mexico, stalls, and just... stays there. For three weeks. Meteorologists call it “unprecedented.” Meteorologists have said “unprecedented” so many times it has lost all meaning.

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🌡️ July

Global temperatures break another record. The record was set last month. And the month before. At this point, “record-breaking” is just called “July.”

The Republican Party releases a climate plan. It is “drill baby drill” but written in green font. The Democratic Party releases a climate plan. It is 600 pages of means-tested tax credits that expire in 2027 and require seventeen forms. Both parties declare victory.

A TikTok influencer goes viral for living “off-grid” in a tiny home. She has 17 brand deals, a ring light powered by a diesel generator, and 400 Amazon packages delivered weekly.

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🌀 August

Hurricane season arrives with a storm so powerful it gets two names because the first one wasn’t scary enough.

Insurance companies quietly exit Florida. Florida responds by banning the word “climate” from insurance documents. The ocean does not comply.

A new feedback loop is discovered in the Amazon. Scientists publish a paper titled “Oh No.” The abstract is just that, twice. The conclusion is “please help.”

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⚛️ September

Germany announces they’re going back to nuclear. France laughs for forty-five minutes straight. Germany pretends not to hear. Poland asks if anyone wants to buy coal.

The first “climate-resilient city” is announced: it’s a billionaire’s bunker in New Zealand with a marketing team. Tickets start at $5 million. The waitlist is 10,000 people.

Legacy automakers announce they’re “pausing” EV investments to “reassess market conditions.” The market conditions are that EVs are winning and they’re embarrassed. They pivot to hybrids. Again.

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🍂 October

A climate scientist goes viral for crying on TV. The clip is shared 40 million times. Comments are split between “so brave” and “this is why I don’t trust scientists.” The scientist quits and becomes a mushroom farmer. This is not a metaphor.

Pumpkin spice lattes are discontinued due to “supply chain challenges”. Starbucks pivots to “autumn-adjacent warming beverages.” It’s hot water with cinnamon. It costs $8.

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🛢️ November

The UN Climate Summit (COP31) convenes in Saudi Arabia. The irony is noted by everyone except the attendees, who are too busy at the open bar sponsored by Aramco.

World leaders agree to “phase down” fossil fuels “eventually,” “in principle,” “weather permitting.”

Black Friday sales feature “sustainable” products shipped overnight from three continents. The irony is not lost. The discounts are too good to resist.

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📈 December

As the year closes, emissions are up, but so is “climate awareness.” Experts call this “progress-adjacent.”

2026 is declared the “hottest year on record” for the 11th consecutive year. News outlets ask: “Is this a trend?” Scientists stare directly into the camera.

Everyone agrees 2027 will be different. It will not be different.

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This forecast is, by design, brief, incomplete, and mostly wrong. Any resemblance to actual events is coincidental, depressing, and probably understated. Feel free to share with the climate optimist/pessimist/realist/denialist in your life.

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Want to actually work on the real solutions instead of just doom-scrolling?

Executive Program → 10 weeks. Senior professionals. Real climate projects. No pitch decks about tokenizing the atmosphere.

Thought Leadership for Humans → Learn to write about climate without becoming a LinkedIn cliché. Q1 waitlist open.